I hope that you have enjoyed the article “Commodity Price Forecasting, Part I.”
Why do you need an article like this and the one that will soon follow?
Allow me to give you some background.
There are two sources I have counted on as good resources for trying to forecast commodity prices: Ariba’s Supply Excellence blog and Purchasing Magazine.
Through Supply Excellence has put out some of the most useful procurement blog content available, history has shown it to vacillate between regularly publishing content and trickling to a near stop. In fact, just in the past several weeks, it featured a post that created the impression that Ariba was ready to pull the plug on Supply Excellence but then proceeded to pump out near-daily content immediately thereafter. While I hope that it remains a regularly-published resource, there are no guarantees.
That being said, there is nothing uncertain about Purchasing Magazine. Last month, the venerable publication indicated that its parent company was immediately ceasing publication of the magazine. Its website was permanently taken offline on Friday.
Both of these developments can scare commodity buyers. “Who can I rely on to get commodity price forecasts?” they ask.
Those who relied too heavily on Purchasing Magazine will struggle, no doubt. But you can’t let that sabotage your performance or your career. The key is to develop some commodity price forecasting skills yourself.
The above-linked article and the forthcoming part 2 are designed to help you steadily become more self-sufficient in your commodity price forecasting. Unfortunately, it is difficult to rely on any third party for this information.
As the saying goes, the only thing certain is that there will be uncertainty. Developing your own commodity price forecasting skills can help you deal with the fact that a long-time source of information may disappear tomorrow.
To Your Career,
Charles Dominick, SPSM
President & Chief Procurement Officer
Next Level Purchasing, Inc.
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