The first blogging day of the new year brings…the predictions for the year. Honestly, predictions seem like a waste of time. If you’re wrong, you look like an idiot. If you’re right, you get to say “Hey everybody! Look at me! I was right!”
But, any blogger could use a reason to write a post with a different theme now and then, so here are my predictions. And, oh, since this is not just a new year but a new decade, I’ll make these predictions for the decade from 2010 – 2019 (that way, if I’m wrong, no one will remember in 2020 that I made these predictions). Call me risk-averse if you will…
1. The End of Device Dependency. In the last 10 years or so, we have depended less on media. You can buy music without getting a CD. You can send a document without paper (e.g., as a PDF) or even a floppy disk. You can rent a movie without getting a VHS tape or DVD at Blockbuster. But you need devices. You need an iPod to play the music. A computer to read that document. A TV to watch the movie. I predict that, just as media went the way of the dinosaur, the devices will either be reduced to one or will go away all together by the end of the decade.
2. The Airline Industry Will Bear Little Resemblance To Its Current Form. Airlines, in general, have not been successful for about a decade. Fuel cost, terrorism threats, inconvenience of security (that still doesn’t seem to work as well as it should), and alternatives such as video conferencing are all getting stronger and conspiring to drag this industry into oblivion. I believe that one airline will realize that it is not in the business of moving people on and off planes, but that it is in the business of facilitating communication between people. I’m not sure if this means that commercial travel and video conferencing will be offered by the same company or something much more advanced and unimaginable at this point in time, but someone will get it right. And competitors will play “monkey-see-monkey-do.” I just don’t think that the airline industry can withstand another decade without reinventing itself.
3. The Professional Purchasing Association Will Have A Whole New Meaning. As long-time readers of this blog know, traditional professional purchasing associations have been hurting. The business model that allowed not-for-profit institutions to survive for nearly 100 years has outlasted its useful life. By 2019, I believe that at least one such major institution will face such financial and business challenges that it will have no choice but to close its doors. In fact, I think that you are going to see a dramatic change in the space this year.
So beam yourself up to my office in 10 years and let me know how accurate these were…
To Your Career,
Charles Dominick, SPSM
President & Chief Procurement Officer
Next Level Purchasing, Inc.
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